The Most Powerful Joe in Washington?

Joe Manchin (D-WV) speaks during a Senate hearing over the summer. Source: Reuters

In theory, West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin has just as much power as his 99 colleagues. Yet Manchin’s status as arguably the most conservative Democratic senator and his willingness to oppose Biden’s more progressive policy initiatives have given his vote a level of influence that has led some to dub him “The Most Powerful Joe in Washington.”

Manchin has stifled the Democratic Party’s agenda in multiple ways. His desire to enact bipartisan legislation has led him to publicly state his firm opposition to ending the filibuster. Senate procedural rules allow any senator to speak for as long as they wish while debating the passage of a bill. Only a three-fifths majority, or 60 senators in today’s Senate, can end this period of debate, called the filibuster. Therefore, any legislative bill without the support of 60 senators is effectively dead on arrival. As an indication of the state of today’s filibustering, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) once recited “Green Eggs and Ham,” and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) once quoted Jay-Z and Wiz Khalifa during his filibuster. Nowadays, a senator need only indicate his intention to filibuster to kill legislation.

The power of the filibuster to halt legislation has many progressives, including former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), calling for a vote to end the procedure. Such a vote would require the support of all fifty Democratic senators to even allow Vice President Kamala Harris to cast the deciding vote in favor of abolishing the filibuster. Consequently, Manchin’s opposition all but dooms the idea. There is precedent for doing so, however. In 2013, Reid led Senate Democrats in abolishing the filibuster for all judicial appointees except the Supreme Court after Republicans blocked numerous Obama nominees. In 2017, Republicans responded by doing the same for the Supreme Court.

In the short term, the move worked well for Republicans. They were able to nominate and confirm three Supreme Court Justices in the span of four years, establishing a solid conservative majority that may last decades. Democrats that favor ending the filibuster for legislation hope to clear the way for the same dynamic action in the legislative sphere. In the bigger picture, though, the ending of the filibuster in favor of heavy-handed, partisan action signals a serious deterioration of Senate functionality. In 1993, for example, Supreme Court nominee Ruth Bader Ginsburg was confirmed by a vote of 96 to 3. Come 2017, Justice Neil Gorsuch was confirmed by a much slimmer margin of 54 to 45. While both parties are understandably eager to advance their legislative and judiciary agendas, the rapid increase in polarization over the last 20 to 30 years should be considered at least somewhat alarming.

Manchin has cited today’s polarization in his reasoning for upholding the filibuster. He has good reason to fear simple majority rule. If Democrats eliminate the filibuster now, the next time Republicans gain a Senate majority, which almost certainly will happen, they will be essentially voiceless for as long as they are the minority party. Yet even if Democrats keep the filibuster in place, there is still a chance that Republicans eliminate it at the next opportunity to do so. Those more cynical about the desire of the GOP to pursue bipartisanship would suggest that the Democrats should eliminate the filibuster now to pass as much legislation as possible before the Republicans inevitably do the same. Such a picture paints a dark but not unfounded view of politics in today’s America.

Regardless of whether or not Manchin is right to keep the filibuster, the way he has gone about it may have hindered bipartisan legislation rather than helping it. Because he has unequivocally stated his intention to preserve the filibuster, Senate Republicans are now under no threat of losing their ability to block legislation. In effect, Manchin has given up his most powerful bargaining chip for free. Republicans can obstruct every initiative that the Biden Administration pushes without feeling any compulsion to cooperate because they know that Manchin will not decide to end the filibuster. If he had used the threat of ending the filibuster as a way to galvanize Republicans into compromising on some bills, there might have been more bipartisan action on the Senate floor. As it stands now, however, Manchin is essentially their ace in the hole. As long as he remains steadfast in his position, Republicans will feel no pressure to cooperate with their Democratic colleagues.