How the Midterms are Shaping Up

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper. Source: CNN.

November is six months away, but the 2026 midterms have a shape. And right now, that shape favors Democrats. Trump's job approval, which stood above 50% when he began his second term, has dropped to around 40%, while public disapproval has climbed 13 points to 57%. Some trackers place him lower. Trump is facing record-low approval ratings, his war in Iran is deeply unpopular, and views of the economy continue to be negative. The House looks increasingly out of reach for Republicans. Democrats’ odds of winning the House majority currently sit at 78.2%, boosted in part by a Virginia redistricting that reshuffled several previously safe Republican seats. In six special elections held since 2025, the swing toward Democratic candidates averaged about 15 points. That kind of movement, if it holds, is wave territory. The Senate is more difficult. Democrats have a serious chance of flipping Republican-held seats in North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, and Ohio, but regaining control of the Senate remains at best an even-money bet. In North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is seen as a strong recruit against Michael Whatley, a less well-known former state party chair. What's driving all of it is less ideology than exhaustion. For the first time since 2010, Democrats are more trusted than Republicans to handle the economy. Whether Democrats can convert that sentiment into Senate seats, or just a House majority, will define what the next two years actually look like.