What Happens If the 'Blue Wave' Comes Ashore in the 2020 Election?

Joe Biden started the 2020 Democratic primary as a relative underdog, but his rise since then may signal his leadership at the helm of an electoral ‘blue wave’ in the 2020 General Election. Source.

With the contentious 2020 election season coming to a close, polls and simulations predict Democrats are poised to secure the White House and the House of Representatives, and at least hold a competitive edge in securing the Senate. As of October 12th, Joe Biden claimed a 12% lead over incumbent President Donald Trump, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by The Washington Post and ABC. Ultimately, with the statistics of the race and the lackluster Republican counter efforts failing to make a dent in the polls, Democrats gaining control of both chambers of Congress and the Executive branch is probable. If the Democrats accomplish such a daunting task, it is likely American institutional norms that have been established for decades will likely face some serious reflection and reform. 

Expanding the Supreme Court, or court packing, as it is known, is already at the forefront of the agenda for prominent Democratic lawmakers on Capitol Hill, with 61% of Democrats favoring the expansion of the Supreme Court. Democrats find Trump’s three appointees extreme, and many feel that Trump has solidified a conservative court for generations. Court packing would allow the Democrats, if Biden is elected to the White House, to add any number of justices to the bench. Their goal would be to balance the court, but expanding the court would come with severe constitutional consequences were both parties to continuously use the court to serve their hyper-partisan agendas. Late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg was against packing the court, and she believed it “..would make the court look partisan.” When pressed on whether voters had a right to know Biden’s opinion on court packing, Biden responded “No, they don’t,” but Biden does say he is “not a fan” of court packing. However, that statement would not bar him from attempting to add justices out of retaliation for the appointment of Amy Coney Barrett.

Given many Democrat’s distaste for the filibuster, they may move to eliminate from the standing rules of the Senate for good. The Senate is a minoritarian institution, meaning all senators have equal rights and the rights of the minority are protected with few limits on speaking privileges. Given this ability, senators are able to protest passage of legislation and defend their fundamental principles. Mitch McConnell was quoted saying the ending of the filibuster for judicial appointments in 2013 was “...a sad day in the history of the Senate… and a power grab” by Democrats. However, flash forward to 2017, and McConnell and Senate Republicans passed legislation themselves to prevent filibustering on Supreme Court appointments. However one may feel about these decisions, it is evident that both major parties are locked into an escalating battle to remove institutional norms from Capitol Hill.  This escalation may result in more radical agendas on both sides of the aisles that increasingly become less representative of the general populace. Ultimately, the Republican party fears the removal of the filibuster, for it could allow the Democrats to push forth their agenda without the need for a republican consensus in the decision making process.

Furthermore, the removal of the filibuster would permit Biden the ability to present a large swath of progressive ideas that may not sit well with congressional Republicans. If Biden passes policies such as providing citizenship to 11 million undocumented immigrants, eliminating Trump’s tax cuts, and passing additional gun restriction legislation, Republicans would in return wish to retaliate whenever they gained control of the Senate. Many of Biden’s slated executive orders such as rejoining the Paris Climate Accord would further enrage congressional Republicans. This retaliation would be made easier with the removal of the filibuster, for in Republican controlled Senate, an increase of conservation legislation would likely be passed without dialogue or approval from the Democrats. This once again would drive hyper-partisan legislation on both sides of the aisle that would become increasingly less representative of the average American. Cumulatively, the erasal of the filibuster and Biden’s initial agenda combined, could spell disaster for the American political system and strengthen the divide between Republicans and Democrats within Washington.

Hamilton foresaw the vital necessity to maintain an independent judiciary devoid of public influence or political strife in Federalist Paper 78; however, an expansion would create nothing more than a power struggle between Democrats and Republicans. Furthermore, the filibuster provides a voice for the minority party, and it ensures bipartisan cooperation to be acquired before advancing the agenda. This results in laws with compromise that reflect a bigger portion of America as opposed to the tyranny of the majority party. Ultimately, if Democrats win as big as they hope this election, the stability of the entire American political framework will rest upon the party’s shoulders, and without institutional norms to depoliticize divisive issues, factions and partisan politics will continue to hinder our abilities to see each other as more than just being blue or red. 

Excerpt: As of October 12th, Joe Biden claimed a 12% lead over incumbent President Donald Trump, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by The Washington Post and ABC. Ultimately, with the statistics of the race and the lackluster Republican counter efforts failing to make a dent in the polls, Democrats gaining control of both chambers of Congress and the Executive branch is probable. If the Democrats accomplish such a daunting task, it is likely American institutional norms that have been established for decades will likely face some serious reflection and reform.