Pompeo Declares China is Committing Genocide—What Comes Next?
An undated photograph of Uighurs held at a detention camp in China. Source.
In his last day as Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo released the following statement accusing China of both crimes against humanity and genocide against the Uighur people. The Uighurs are a Muslim minority group that lives primarily in the Western region of Xinjiang. The crimes against humanity accusation was for “the arbitrary imprisonment or other severe deprivation of physical liberty of more than one million civilians, forced sterilization, torture of a large number of those arbitrarily detained, forced labor, and the imposition of draconian restrictions on freedom of religion or belief, freedom of expression, and freedom of movement.”
In contrast to crimes against humanity, a genocide declaration speaks to the targeted extermination of a specific people group. For more information on the history and oppression of the Uighur people and see this piece published in October.
Despite many differences between the Trump and Biden Administration, they agree on this issue.
During his confirmation hearing before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, the new Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that he agreed with the finding and declaration of genocide and crimes against humanity. In October, a bipartisan resolution was introduced in the committee by Senator Menendez (D-NJ) and Senator Cornyn (R-TX) to designate the abuses as genocide.
More broadly, Blinken’s confirmation hearing provided insight into the future of U.S.-China relations. He did state that he "believe[d] that President Trump was right in taking a tougher approach to China…but the basic principle was the right one, and I think that's actually helpful to our foreign policy," despite professing strong disagreement about the methods President Trump went about doing so. This statement and the bipartisan agreement about the need for a tougher approach towards China evidenced throughout the hearing and questions posed certain signals that the tension between the U.S. and China will not dissipate despite the change in administration.
On the same day as the U.S. made it’s genocide declaration, the British Parliament voted down a law that would have barred trade with countries deemed by its own courts to be committing genocide. However, the U.K. has called the internment and oppression of the Uighurs “truly horrific” and is in the process of reviewing and contemplating sanctions. The EU has also recently adopted language condemning the abuses and the foreign minister of Australia criticized Beijing in a floor speech at the UN. Regional ally Japan was crucial in the intelligence gathering process that led to Pompeo’s declaration.
Despite international condemnation, affecting change in Xinjiang will likely be difficult. The genocide designation itself does not mandate any action, though it has significant power in shaping the public narrative and carries political weight. Neither the U.S. or China are members of the International Criminal Court and because China is a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council with veto power, any action is unlikely to go through those two avenues.
The Biden Administration’s commitment to multilateralism will likely mean that he approaches any sort of change with allies. While there might be international agreement about the atrocities, China’s economic leverage could complicate matters significantly. With no clear path in international courts and a myriad of other pressing issues that divide the two countries—such as intellectual property, trade, 5G, COVID-19, the status of Hong Kong and Taiwan, and military expansion in the South China Sea—it remains to be seen if this declaration will trigger change or be neglected in favor of broader foreign policy priorities.