Duterte’s Shadow Looms Large Over Philippine’s Election
Duterte has scored record high approval ratings despite poor handling of COVID-19. Source: The Japan Times
An everyday sight manifests on the public streets of Tugatog, one of the poorest cities in the Philippines: children laughing and playing, dodging between market carts and motorcycles while chasing after soccer balls. But nothing about this scene is ordinary. Just a few feet away lies the coffin of Agustine de Silva, a victim of the War on Drugs in the Philippines. Under the harsh governance of President Rodrigo Duterte, the War on Drugs seeks to eradicate a rampant drug trade through martial policies, with enforcers often resorting to brute violence and extrajudicial killings. Termed the “bloodiest nights," the crackdown plunged the country into a bloodbath — with over 27,000 people killed in the past five years. As Duterte prepares to step down after this term, the shadow of his legacy and the War on Drugs looms large with the country preparing for its 2022 elections. Upper-class voters hope that the power of the ballot box will eradicate the President's harsh policies, but his legacy appears entrenched among the urban poor and middle class due to broad popularity and political sponsorship.
Corruption, deferential foreign policy, and even an International Criminal Court human rights probe cloud Duterte's legacy. While he treats crime with a heavy hand, he capitulates under the pressure of China and the burdens of COVID-19. As China extends its claims in the South China Sea past the nine-dash line, Duterte remains a steadfast ally of Xi Jinping, even accepting Chinese funding for infrastructure projects. Similarly, he lost his combative personality against COVID, with the country placing last on Bloomberg’s COVID Resilience Rankings. However, he retains broad support among a populace weary of apathetic leaders. Despite well-documented human rights abuses, 82% of the population approves of the War on Drugs, claiming that Duterte prioritized action over traditional lethargy.
Even though Duterte plans to step down after the May 2022 elections, his presence and popularity continue to pervade national politics. Currently, the election frontrunner for President is his daughter, Sara Zimmerman Duterte-Carpio, even though she has not declared candidacy yet. Although less heavy-handed than her father, a possible Duerte-Carpio victory guarantees a continuation of Duterismo. Outside of the Duterte family, there appears to be no frontrunner between the four current candidates, all of which are star-studded with either celebrity status or notoriety.
Polling in second-place, former Senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. is the son of the former dictator, Ferdinand Marcos Sr., who subjected the country to martial law, kleptocracy, and nepotism before being ousted in the People’s Power Revolution. Nonetheless, Marcos Jr. does not seek to emulate the policies of his father, but, rather, that of Duterte. Having developed relationships with the President as a Senator, Marcos Jr. speaks highly of Duterte’s policies on War on Drugs and even courted him as a vice presidential candidate. If elected, he promises to shield Duterte from ICC investigations by refusing to provide evidence for probes. Coming in third place is Isko Moreno, a former-actor-turned-Mayor of Manila, the capital of the Philippines. Raised in the slums of Manila, Moreno found fame acting in romance movies. Now, he seeks to win the heart of the nation with a populist platform catered to the lower class. His notable policies include corruption probes, social spending for the poor, and increased transparency. But, Moreno is not the only former A-lister to transition into politics. Former boxing champion Manny Pacquiao stepped into the ring with a platform of conservatism. Similar to Marcos Jr., his policies offer a continuation of Duterterismo: hard-handed crime prevention, a continuation of the death penalty, and blockading investigations into the War on Drugs. It remains to be seen whether the former boxing heavyweight can deliver knockouts against a new type of opponent: political heavyweights.
Candidates in both the presidential and parliamentary elections seek to resonate among a population battered by the social and economic reverberations of COVID-19. Despite having one of the longest COVID lockdowns, the nation suffers from the worst outbreak in southeast Asia. Because only 24% of the population is vaccinated, the country still undergoes targeted lockdowns — leading to economic fallout. Indeed, GDP decreased by 9.5% in 2020. Even more alarming, community mobility is 27% below pre-pandemic levels, starving businesses of consumption that accounts for 73.5% of GDP. Without adequate handling of COVID-19, the country will continue to suffer dwindling state coffers and wallets, depleting social programs for the poor.
At the federal level, the Philippines holds its parliamentary election in tandem with the presidential election, where 12 senatorial seats and 63 representative seats are up for election. Once again, the shadow of Duterte hangs heavy over the ballot box. The Liberal Party, the country’s main opposition party, seeks to build a united coalition — termed 1Sambayan — against the dominating PDP-Laban party, the party of Duterte. But their attempts appear fruitless as the coalition fractures between three different presidential candidates. Duterte’s power is entrenched among Filipino politics to such a high extent that any division in the opposition would prove fatal to their cause. Because the opposition cannot offer a substantial alternative to Duterismo, Duetere’s chosen successor, whether his daughter or Marcos Jr., will likely win the election.
Elections symbolize renewal, revitalization, and even a revolution through the ballot box. But, the Philippines' election falls short of such magnanimous claims of change. With a fragmented opposition, political trends will continue instead of breaking anew after Rodrigo Duterte's term ends this May. Fueled by patronage, clientelism, and sheer popularity, his signature ideas and legacy will outlast his era of presidential politicking.