A Buildup of Troops and Tension Between Russia and Ukraine
Sukhoi Su-34 fighter jets are seen at Russia’s Morozovsk air base, about 100 miles east of the Ukrainian border in southern Russia, in a satellite image provided by Maxar Technologies that it said was taken in April 2021. Source: Maxar Technologies
Update: After mounting pressure from Ukrainian officials and Western allies, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced a pullback of troops from the contested border on Thursday. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was reportedly pleased with the announcement, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba cautioned that he was waiting for “Russian deeds match Russian words,” adding, “That was said was not enough, we want to see that this will be implemented and all these forces will be removed from our border.”
Tensions between Moscow and the West have escalated even more this week, with Russia running military exercises in the Black Sea and massing a large number of troops in Crimea and at Ukraine's border. This comes at a time when internal protests and international pressure around the health of Alexi Navalny already have eyes on Russia and coordinated sanctions have been launched by the U.S. and EU.
According to Russia's Black Sea Fleet, over 20 Russian vessels took part in the latest naval exercises in the Black Sea along with Su-25SM3 attack aircraft, as part of a check of the fleet's forces. It has also been announced that Russia is closing airspace over sections of Crimea and the Black Sea, saying the areas had been "declared temporarily dangerous for aircraft flights," according to Russia's Interfax news agency.
Over 100,000 Russian troops have massed on Ukraine's border and in Crimea, European Union foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell said after a briefing by Ukraine's foreign minister. "It's the highest military deployment of Russian army in Ukrainian borders ever," Borrell commented.
Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy commented on the situation in an address to the Ukranian people."A considerable number of Russian troops are concentrated near our border. Officially, Russia calls this military exercises. Unofficially, the whole world calls such things blackmail," Zelenskiy said in his address.
More than 14,000 people have died in seven years of fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed separatists after Russia’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Both the United States and the European Union have opposed the annexation of Crimea and do not recognize it as Russian territory — but have been unable to take action against it.
Violations of an already-shaky ceasefire agreement have become increasingly frequent in recent weeks across the Donbass — an eastern industrial region of Ukraine. Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy has invited Putin to bilateral talks in the Donbass, saying, “I am ready to go even further and invite you to meet in any part of the Ukrainian Donbass where war is ongoing.”
The United States has called on Russia to de-escalate tensions with Ukraine. President Biden has said that he is not eager to increase friction with Moscow, but is prepared to take action if necessary.
Some experts claim that Russia’s troop build-up may be a test of just how important Ukranian sovereignty is to the West, but others fear that the troop build-up is preparation for greater military action.
The Kremlin has argued that Russia “has the right to move its forces across its territory at its discretion” and is only taking precautions given the unpredictable situation on its borders with Ukraine.
A sign of souring relations, the United States' ambassador in Moscow confirmed he was leaving the country for "consultations" back in the U.S. This comes after Russia has announced plans to expel nearly a dozen U.S. diplomats in response to the latest round of U.S. sanctions over Moscow’s hacking and election interference campaigns. The Russian ambassador to Washington D.C. returned to Moscow for consultations last month.
However, the escalation of tensions in Ukraine may lead to the first US-Russia summit under the Biden administration. President Biden has reportedly proposed to meet Putin face-to-face to discuss bilateral relations as well as the Ukranian situation. If this were to come to fruition, it would be the first summit since 2018, and likely demonstrate the United States’ foreign policy shift under the new president.