Taiwan Is Not Ukraine
Protesters in Taipei stand in support of Ukraine. Source: Reuters
As Russia invades Ukraine, foreign policy scholars and world leaders worry about possible ramifications on other geopolitical hotspots. Matthew Kroening, from the Scowcroft Center, questioned if “China’s Xi Jinping believes that the time is right to move on Taiwan?” UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated, "if Ukraine is endangered, the shock will echo around the world. And those echoes will be heard in east Asia, will be heard in Taiwan."
These concerned scholars and politicians have identified Taiwan as an at-risk target. The island has been functionally autonomous since 1949, however the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has maintained that Taiwan is a fundamental part of China, and will eventually be reunited. This rhetoric is similar to that of Vladimir Putin, who claimed that Russia and Ukraine were historically one nation, who were mistakenly split at the end of the Cold War. Chinese President Xi Jinping has made the reunification of Taiwan a core part of his political platform, stating that “bringing Taiwan under Beijing’s control cannot be left to the next generation.” Several news outlets, including Reuters, raised alarm that nine Chinese airplanes entered Taiwanese airspace on February 24, ascribing this to a possible Chinese offensive. However, the flights were actually a significant reduction from previous months; 39 Chinese planes entered Taiwanese airspace on January 23. China has remained relatively silent on Ukraine, abstaining from a United Nations vote to condemn the Russian invasion, and has avoided comparing the Russian invasion to any actions towards Taiwan. Chinese state media said that “Taiwan is ‘not Ukraine.’" The Taiwanese government has not reported any unusual maneuvers by China. While Taiwan remains alert, they do not anticipate or fear a Chinese offensive.
Although there are some similarities in the Russian-Ukrainian and Chinese-Taiwanese relationships, it is highly unlikely that China takes similarly militaristic actions in Taiwan. The US Defense Department noted that “an aggressive military modernization campaign by China means it could be able to attack Taiwan as early as 2027,” placing any legitimate threat to Taiwan several years away. Additionally, China and Russia have drastically different outlooks on their national futures. Russia is a declining power with a deeply troubled economy and rapidly declining influence in Eastern Europe. As noted by War on the Rocks, Russia has largely failed to prevent Eastern Europe’s westward turn, indicated by the fact that current conflicts are in Ukraine and not Germany, as they were during the Cold War. In comparison, China is a rising power, and believes that time is on its side. China has one of the world’s largest economies and is increasing its global influence. Essentially, while Putin is spurred to act quickly out of desperation, Xi Jinping believes that he has all the time in the world. Furthermore, Russia has been engaged in low-level conflict in Eastern Ukraine since 2014; in comparison, China has not engaged in any remotely serious military action against Taiwan. Additionally, Chinese President Xi Jinping is currently preparing for the Communist Party National Congress, an event that occurs once every five years, where he will attempt to cement his third term in power. The Congress occurs in November, and Xi will likely avoid major risks until then. Any attempt to reunify Taiwan with the PRC that is less than a resounding success would severely damage his efforts to maintain control of China.
Several observers have argued that the United States must protect its credibility as a world power, and a failure to defend Ukraine would lead China to believe that Taiwan is equally vulnerable. However, this assessment is deeply misguided. Taiwan is vastly more important to US vital interests. Taiwan is America’s ninth-largest trading partner, above India and France, Ukraine ranks 67th. Taiwan occupies a central place in global value chains, and is part of the First Island Chain, which the US identifies as the initial line of defense of the United States West Coast. Additionally, the United States has consistently reaffirmed its commitment to Taiwan’s defense through the Taiwan Relations Act. As noted by National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, “The Taiwan Relations Act is a unique instrument — we don’t have it with other countries; we don’t have it with Ukraine — that does talk about American commitments to support Taiwan in various ways [including militarily].” The United States has already established a willingness to defend Taiwan through force. In 1950, President Harry Truman ordered the 7th Fleet into the Taiwanese Strait to prevent the PRC from controlling the Island.
China may want Taiwan as much as Russia desires Ukraine, but the PRC is highly unlikely to make any aggressive reunification attempts in the near future. Xi’s focus on the upcoming Communist National Congress likely assures the Island’s safety for the rest of the year. While Putin is pushed towards rash action to heal an ailing Russia, Chinese leaders believe Chinese global dominance is only a matter of time, and will pursue reunification patiently. Furthermore, China understands that the United States is much more committed to Taiwanese autonomy than Ukrainian independence.