With Primaries Looming, Republican Loyalty to Trump is Tested
The most recent CPAC poll for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination resulted in Trump winning 59% of the ballots cast, with Florida governor Ron DeSantis coming in a distant second place with 28% of the vote. Source: AP Photo/Evan Vucci
More than a year after Donald Trump’s involvement in the January 6 Capitol attack elicited the condemnation of the Republican establishment and prompted his ouster from mainstream social media, the twice-impeached former president’s endorsement is still the most valuable political capital a Republican candidate can earn. In midterm races around the country, Trump is making his presence known and proving that no other politician has more of an influence on the future of the Republican Party.
In Georgia, Donald Trump asked former state Representative Vernon Jones to drop out of the race for governor to clear the way for Trump’s preferred candidate, former Senator David Perdue. On February 7, Jones, who had built his gubernatorial campaign on a promise to fix a Georgia electoral system that he claimed had robbed Donald Trump of a win in 2020, accepted Trump’s endorsement to instead run in the 10th congressional district.
The Senate race in Arizona is less clear-cut. Questions linger over whether Governor Doug Ducey will follow up his two terms in Phoenix with a bid to unseat Mark Kelly, who won a special election in 2020. The only thing standing in his way: Donald Trump has made his dislike for Ducey very well known. As governor, Ducey refused to overturn Arizona’s 2020 election results and dismissed Trump’s allegations of widespread fraud. In a state where the Republican Party is still very much beholden to Donald Trump, Ducey’s resounding lack of support from former President Trump could be enough to keep him out of the race.
The importance of a Trump endorsement in this election cycle underlines the former president’s grip on Republican politics, even as a complicated struggle continues that has divided the GOP into two wings with disparate attitudes toward Donald Trump.
Trump’s lies about the results of the 2020 election, which spurred a mob of his supporters to storm the Capital in an attempt to halt the certification of the Electoral College, have been widely criticized by the individuals who once held some of the most high-profile offices in Congress and Trump’s Cabinet. In the months following January 6, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell labeled Trump’s actions on the day of the attack “a disgraceful, disgraceful dereliction of duty.” In February of this year, his former vice president, Mike Pence, said he “had no right to overturn the election” and Trump was “wrong” to suggest as much to the rioters that called for Pence’s hanging. Former Attorney General William Barr, whose Justice Department investigated Trump’s allegations of fraud, denies that the election was stolen and, in an upcoming memoir, cautions the Republican Party to “look forward” to different candidates in 2024.
The Republican base, however, has largely turned against the likes of McConnell and Pence, remaining loyal to the man they voted into the White House in 2016. If the straw poll conducted at last weekend’s Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) is any indication, the GOP has no intentions of moving on from Donald Trump. The CPAC poll for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination resulted in Trump winning 59% of the ballots cast, with Florida governor Ron DeSantis coming in a distant second place with 28% of the vote.
Although popular sentiment seems to favor pro-Trump Republicans, several congressional stalwarts have staked their futures on taking a principled stand against Trump’s election lies. This fall, Mitch McConnell will seek to retain his role as the party leader in the Senate while Liz Cheney fights to win a fourth term in the House of Representatives.
Cheney, the lone representative from Wyoming in the House, has been among the most vocal critics of Trump’s efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election. Unlike Representative Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, the only other Republican to serve on the House Select Committee on the January 6 Attack, Cheney will seek reelection this fall. In the more Trump-friendly House, support for Cheney is scarce. In mid-February, urged on by Donald Trump, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy endorsed Cheney’s primary opponent. Soon after, Representative Elise Stefanik, who replaced Cheney as the third-ranking member of the party leadership, joined McCarthy in opposing Cheney’s reelection effort.
The battle lines for 2022 have been marked. Whether critics of Donald Trump such as McConnell and Cheney will survive the midterm election remains to be seen. For now, Trump promises to play a leading role in the future of the GOP.