The Ambassador of Poland, speaking at Chapel Hill, sees a long road ahead for the Ukraine war
Polish Ambassador to the United States, Ambassador Marek Magierowski. Source for Photo: Polska Newsweek
On January 25th 2023, UNC Chapel Hill hosted the Ambassador of Poland to the United States, his Excellency Marek Magierowski, as part of the Global Center’s Krasno Ambassadors Forum. Ambassador Magierowski spoke on the Russia-Ukraine war, focusing his speech primarily on the magnitude of Poland’s assistance to Ukraine. In the subsequent forum, the Ambassador answered audience questions, speaking of potential future outcomes of the war, as well as his definitions of victory or defeat for Ukraine and the West.
Over the last year, Poland has ascended to the world stage because of the tension and subsequent war between Ukraine and Russia. This recent emergence is driven by Poland’s location and NATO membership, which makes it a key staging ground for Western supplies flowing into Ukraine as well as a primary refuge for migrants.
Poland sits in Central Europe, west of Eastern-European Ukraine, yet the country is not considered “Western.” Following World War II, the Soviet Union forcefully shaped Poland into a Soviet satellite state, although it was never an official part of the Soviet Union. Following the Red Army’s march into the country in 1944, Polish leadership in both civil and military positions were removed, often violently, and replaced with pro-communist figureheads. Soviet troops did not fully leave the country until 1989. With the weakening and subsequent collapse of the USSR, Poland took back its political autonomy and has since become a democratic parliamentary republic with one of the strongest economies in Europe – and a strong animosity for Russia. Poland has heavily aligned itself with the West, joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1999, and the European Union (EU) in 2004.
Ambassador Magierowski opened his speech by building up his perception of the Russian leadership’s mindset, which he identifies as a key cause of the war. Specifically, he discussed the “narrative of encirclement,” an idea commonly espoused by Russian or pro-Russia politicians that the West (and in particular, the United States) has coerced or even forced Eastern European and post-Soviet states to economically and militarily align with the West. More specifically, they believe this is part of a calculated strategy to “encircle” Russia by weakening its alliances with neighboring states. Russia has used this narrative as justification for violations of national sovereignty before: namely, the invasion of Georgia in 2008.
Poland’s Role in the War
Unsurprisingly, the Polish Ambassador focused his speech on Poland’s role, both alone and alongside the greater West, in aiding Ukraine in the conflict.
Poland takes great pride in their efforts in aiding the victims of the social crisis of asylum migration into the country. Over 9 million Ukrainians have passed through Poland fleeing the war, and over a million remain in Poland, a country of 38 million. The nation has worked to integrate Ukrainians into Polish society, offering jobs and vaccination campaigns, while the Polish people have been very welcoming; almost 80% of Poles say they helped a Ukrainian refugee in some manner. Unlike other refugee crises across the globe, Ambassador Magierowski claims that Poland has not grown weary of Ukrainians who have chosen to remain in Poland, due in part to their similar languages and similar experiences of systemic Russian oppression.
Ambassador Magierowski emphasized Poland’s efforts to forewarn the West of Russia’s ambitions, particularly as a partner in energy infrastructure. As part of efforts begun months before the invasion, Poland was able to make itself almost completely independent of Russian energy by the middle of 2022. This is a stark contrast to the rest of Europe, which continues to wrestle with energy issues and disputes due to Russian dominance in the industry.
Ambassador Magierowski largely avoided speaking on the specifics of Poland’s military aid to Ukraine.
Responses to Audience Questions: Resolution and Victory
Audience questions across topics allowed Ambassador Magierowski to craft an analytical narrative of how the West should delineate victory and defeat in the conflict. The war is militarily waning, and the Ambassador warned of allowing it to become a “frozen conflict:” one lacking resolution, with the constant risk that armed conflict could resume. Ambassador Magierowski also shared his thoughts on how to progress towards Ukrainian victory, and what the international order may look like at such a point.
Many audience questions, from professionals and students alike, inquired as to the nature and likelihood of an eventual end to the war. The Ambassador was not optimistic of a resolution in the foreseeable future, for two reasons.
The first was Putin’s political and personal inability to admit defeat. Ambassador Magierowski commented that he thought Putin could have feasibly withdrawn after occupying the contested territories, but the continuation of the campaign exemplifies Putin’s investment in a narrative of the Russian leadership’s own creation. In believing his own propaganda, Putin changed the nature of the Russia-Ukraine war. It could have been a simple military procedure to disturb Westernization in a former Soviet state, but he has expanded the narrative to a greater fight against the West.
Subsequent questions in the discussion narrowed onto Putin’s role in the war, and the possibility that he is inhibiting potential peace discussions. Ambassador Magierowski believes that Putin will never negotiate in good faith with Ukraine, nor will he give up on the war. When pressed about the possibility of Western intervention to remove Putin from power, Ambassador Magierowski firmly denounced the idea. He remarked that in Tsarist Russian history, protracted conflicts always led to a change in regime, such as the 1905 Russo-Japanese war, or the first World War. The Russia-Ukraine war, he suggested, has the potential to inspire such a shift again. However, the Ambassador believes that even if peace talks were facilitated in some manner, any arrangements with Russia would not be acceptably secure, as Russian leadership has an extensive history of exploiting such agreements. Even if a regime change occurred, the instability of new leadership would likely cause this idea to ring true.
The second reason the Ambassador did not see a resolution soon was the resilience of the Russian people and economy, largely as a function of the autocratic regime and natural resource pool. He expressed concern that the West has become apathetic towards the increasingly likely reality of a frozen conflict. Ambassador Magierowski asserted that a frozen conflict means Russian victory, since Russia will be able to solidify territorial gains, as with Crimea in 2014, as well as prevent Ukrainian accession into both NATO and the EU.
The Ambassador held that it is the position of Poland, and should be of the West, that the final outcome of the war should be the restoration of Ukraine’s borders as of 2014. That is, before the annexation of Crimea. Not only do Poland and Ukraine, as well as most of the West, see Crimea as part of Ukraine, Ambassador Magierowski believes that if Russia were to keep any part of Ukraine they would be vindicated by their small victory, and another conflict would be likely.
When asked of the ability of Ukraine’s allies to continue “stomaching” the war, the Ambassador seemed confident in the ability of world leaders to quickly overcome divisions. In fact, the dispute over granting tanks to Ukraine, specifically by Germany, was resolved the day of his speech at UNC. However, the Ambassador was frustrated with the perception that arming Ukraine is a heavy expense, as he perceives it as “peanuts” to face a potentially “existential threat.”
Advice for the West
Ambassador Magierowski advised that the West should continue providing military aid to Ukraine in order to prevent a frozen conflict, which also facilitates greater territorial recovery that would give Ukraine a better starting point for potential future peace negotiations. Further, the Ambassador warned that Russian military power is now being vastly underestimated, a more dangerous assumption compared to its overestimation before the war. This miscalculation of Russian forces could contribute to the NATO states reducing their support, and thus encouraging Russia to swell its forces and overwhelm more Ukrainian territory. Conventional military wisdom dictates that it is easier to defend territory than take it. The Ambassador expressed concern that, if a significant Russian swell occurred, it would risk restricting supply lines, and therefore Western aid. Despite this, he does not believe that Russia would use nuclear weapons or invade a NATO country, like Poland, as has been feared due to Putin’s aggressive rhetoric.
Despite being pessimistic regarding a conclusion to the war in the near future, Ambassador Magierowski expressed a generally optimistic view for Ukrainian victory. He stated that Russia’s military aggression, resulting from its leadership’s supposed fear of encirclement, has led to the greater unification of Western partnerships, such as the strengthening of NATO. Preventing further expansion of aggression in Europe is a valuable outcome for Western states, who should continue providing Ukraine aid. As we approach the one-year mark since Russia’s invasion, the prevailing challenge facing Ukraine and its allies is to prevent a frozen conflict and, ultimately, Russian victory.
You can watch Ambassador Magierowski’s talk at UNC here.