Potential Russian Aggression against Transnistria: The Soviet Sliver of Moldova

President Sandu discusses a military alliance to secure Moldovan borders Source for photo: Politico

Amongst staggering headlines of the Russia-Ukraine war, Moldova, a relatively small country on the southwest border of Ukraine, has recently made international headlines. In early February, President Maia Sandu alleged Russia attempted to interfere in the country by inciting a coup. Sandu reports: “The plan included sabotage and militarily trained people disguised as civilians to carry out violent actions, attacks on government buildings and taking hostages.” Russia has firmly denied any such allegations, as Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed the allegations are “completely unfounded and unsubstantiated.” Yet the President of Moldova’s claims are strikingly similar to those made by Ukraine regarding Crimea in 2014, which was annexed by Russia shortly after such claims, and again by Ukraine in 2022, which is currently at war with Russia. 

International concern over a Russian stronghold in Moldova stems from Moldova’s recent petition to join the European Union and Putin’s potential to regain control over Transnistria, the eastern sliver of Moldova. Transnistria is historically pro-Russian, having previously declared itself a Soviet Republic in 1990. After two years of conflict in the region, Moldova and the pro-Moscow separatists settled with a deadlock in 1992. The region today is characterized as a “breakaway state,” yet is internationally recognised as part of Moldova. Given its close proximity to Russia, the international community has raised concerns over Putin’s potential to gain a stronghold in Transnistria as a base for further reach in Moldova, to collect Ukrainian intelligence, or potentially for further invasion in western Ukraine.

Transnistria’s close proximity to the Russia-Ukraine Conflict. Source for image: BBC News

Moldova has historically ebbed between pro-European and pro-Russian governments, and entering the European Union would establish a permanent shift towards Europe as opposed to Russia. A potential Russian coup, or invasion, to prevent Moldova from joining the European Union carries serious concerns in the international community, including the possibility that Russia will invade Russian-speaking Transnistria as another “special military operation,”as they did with Crimea and Ukraine. 

Putin refers to Russia’s actions as “special military operations” likely for two primary reasons. First, as an effort to control the information space by presenting Russia as on the defensive, allegedly safeguarding Russian-speaking populations against the Ukrainian government. Second, and more nuanced, Vladimir Putin’s use of “special military operation,” instead of declaring outright war, could help his defense in the case he is tried in the International Criminal Court for ordering illegal attacks on Crimea, Ukraine, and, possibly in the future, Moldova. 

The war in Ukraine currently persists as Russia seeks to capture the city of Bakhmut, yet the territorial acquisition possibilities for Russia look bleaker every day. Transnistria is becoming a possible target for Russia to gain control of EU territory, given the Soviet history of the breakaway state. Additionally, because Moldova is not a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Russian aggression towards Transnistria territory, and largely Moldova, would likely not be met with a military force response from NATO. Although Ukraine is not a member of NATO, it is a NATO partner, and therefore has garnered significant support for NATO allies. In the event Moscow moves to invade Transnistria, whether Russia will stop at Transnistria or initiate an invasion into Moldova or western Ukraine is unknown. 

In response to these concerns, the international community focuses its attention on strengthening Moldova’s economy and political cohesion. President Sandu has called on Moldova’s parliament to draft legislation that gives Moldova "the necessary means to fight more efficiently against national security threats,"including air defense, budget support to tackle inflation, and legal reforms to mitigate corruption.