The Touska incident lays bare the structural contradiction at the heart of this ceasefire: both sides are enforcing blockades they consider legitimate while accusing the other of violations. That's not a misunderstanding – it is two incompatible definitions of the deal sharing the same body of water. With the strait functionally closed, a Wednesday deadline approaching, and Iran promising retaliation, only time will tell whether this is a negotiating tactic or the prelude to something considerably worse.

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