Who’s Running for North Carolina’s U.S. Senate Seat in 2026?

Wiley Nickel speaks at a news conference in Washington, D.C. in March 2023. Source: Drew Angerer

Former Congressman Wiley Nickel has become the first major candidate to jump into North Carolina’s Senate contest in what could become one of the most pivotal races of the 2026 midterms. As a crucial swing state, North Carolina could sway the balance of power in the Senate if Democrats unseat incumbent Senator Thom Tillis — or the candidate who successfully primaries him. Because of that, would-be senators on both sides of the aisle are lining up to run, meaning that Nickel faces an uphill battle — not only to wresting away his party’s nomination from more well-known prospective candidates like former Governor Roy Cooper, but also to standing out in what’s likely to be a high-profile, competitive general election.

Nickel is a well-known figure in North Carolina politics, having represented part of Raleigh as NC-13’s Democratic Congressman from 2023 to 2025. Before that, he served four years in the state Senate, leaving him intimately acquainted with the state’s political machinery. With such an impressive resume, one might think he’d be a shoo-in for his party’s 2026 nomination. However, he faces two main problems. First, he has never held a statewide office, leaving him with less name recognition than some of his would-be primary challengers and raising questions over whether he could win a race at the state level. After all, the factors that helped him win over Raleigh voters—such as his history as a criminal defense attorney and his vocal criticism of President Trump—may not resonate with rural North Carolinians. Many of these voters are unfamiliar with Nickel and less likely to respond positively to his liberal background.

His second problem is Roy Cooper, the popular former governor of North Carolina who is rumored to be considering a run for Tillis’ Senate seat. With deep donor connections and broad statewide name recognition built during his 2017–2024 governorship, Cooper would likely have little trouble clearing the primary field, even high-profile figures such as Nickel. Of course, a general election race would be much tighter, given North Carolina’s near-equal partisan split (for example, the state voted for Donald Trump by only 3.3% in 2024). Even so, the national environment will likely lean toward Democrats in 2026 due to the controversial nature of Trump’s second term as president, which, combined with Cooper’s unique political strength, would likely be enough to push him over the edge against his Republican opponent. 

However, whether Cooper will enter the race in the first place is still an open question. Given the fact that he would be 68 upon being sworn in as senator, his career in Congress may not be long. This is in part because of the record number of older senators who have chosen not to seek reelection in 2026, which may set a precedent for the coming years against septuagenarians and octogenarians serving in the Senate. Consequently, Cooper may hesitate to relaunch his political career if he feels there’s limited time to ascend in Washington’s political hierarchy.

Still, many Republicans fear a potential Cooper bid, most among them being incumbent Senator Thom Tillis. Currently sitting at a 25% approval rating, Tillis would lose to Cooper by 4% if the election were held today, according to a March poll by Public Policy Polling. This is worsened by Tillis’ complex political identity. He is often considered a moderate voice in the Senate, known for voting to codify protections for same-sex marriage in 2022 and expressing discontent with President Trump’s tariffs this month. However, he has largely lurched to the right in the last year in order to stave off a potential primary challenge—for example, in early 2024, he voted against cloture on a bipartisan border security package drafted in consultation with conservative Republican Senator James Lankford, a move widely seen as a concession to hardliners in his party. Tillis’ wavering has made him enemies among both the moderate and Trump-aligned wings of the Republican Party, leaving him vulnerable to attacks, withdrawals of donor support, and even primary challenges from all sides. Still, as an incumbent Senator, Tillis presumably has extensive fundraising reach and significant backing from party machinery, making any intra-party contest of his nomination—and any Democratic bid to unseat him in the general—an uphill battle.

So, who might take up this challenge? Among Republicans, no major names have entered the race yet, with the only current contenders being centrist businessman Andy Nilsson and far-right author Don Brown (neither of whom has ever held elected office). However, a few high-profile Republican officials are eyeing a run. For example, party leaders have put forward daughter-in-law of President Trump and former Republican National Committee Chair Lara Trump as a potential candidate. With a Victory Insights poll from December showing her with a remarkable 65% of the vote compared to Tillis’ 11% in a hypothetical primary matchup, Trump would pose a grave threat to the incumbent senator’s ambitions, especially if she secured her father-in-law’s coveted endorsement. Of course, one other potential contender of note is freshman NC-10 Representative Pat Harrigan, a former U.S. Army Green Beret who is rumored to be considering a primary campaign. Harrigan could pose a serious challenge to Tillis, using his military experience and an endorsement from President Trump in his 2024 congressional race to make a credible case to the Republican base.

In short, North Carolina’s 2026 Senate race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive — and unpredictable — contests in the country. With high-profile contenders emerging in both parties and a vulnerable incumbent caught between factions, the outcome will depend heavily on who actually enters the race. Consequently, North Carolina is set to be a central tipping point for the balance of power in Washington next cycle.