Bolsonaro's Conviction Forces Major Shifts Within the Current Brazilian Government
Despite his conviction, Bolsonaro is still extremely popular among his right-wing supporters. Source: DW.
Jair Bolsonaro, the former president of Brazil, has been sentenced to 27 years in prison by the Brazilian Supreme Court for plotting a coup against the current Brazilian president, Lula da Silva. His charges included organizing a plot to assassinate Lula, his vice presidential running mate Geraldo Alckmin, and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. He was also charged with engineering a coup by encouraging his supporters to revolt against the Brazilian government, resulting in massive raids on the Supreme Court and capital on January 8, 2023. Bolsonaro is currently under house arrest for previously making false claims about the legitimacy of the Brazilian electoral process. He is currently recovering from a stabbing incident that occurred earlier during his campaign. This decision made by the Brazilian Supreme Court will force Brazil to reassess its international alliances and confront political discord domestically.
The decision has serious implications for the relationships Brazil has on the global stage. Pressure from the United States President Donald Trump has forced the country to reconsider its relationship with the U.S. and look toward other states for economic alliances. Trump had imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports before the ruling as a response to the investigation. In public statements, he asserts that the prosecution against Bolsonaro has no basis and is simply a political attack. He has also openly compared the situation to his own legal woes leading up to the 2024 presidential election. Considering that the United States is one of the largest buyers of Brazilian exports like soybeans and petroleum, this will have a serious effect on the ability of the state to export its goods and welcome investments into the country. Lula da Silva must consider whether saving the Brazilian economy from losing one of its largest consumers is grounds for pardoning Bolsonaro.
Lula da Silva is currently seeking alternative solutions. He has been outspoken about how Bolsonaro’s attempted coup posed a serious threat to Brazilian democracy and how it could take the nation back to the right-wing military dictatorship in 1964. Silva recently signed a deal with the Mercosur Bloc, a South American free trade alliance that includes Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. The deal lowered tariffs between participating states and four European states in order to encourage free trade between these nations. This move aims to diversify Brazil’s customer base, reducing the dependency of U.S. firms on the consumption of Brazilian goods, thus offering Lula a strategy that bypasses Trump’s attempts to reinstate Bolsonaro; however, the strong support for Bolsonaro both inside and outside of Brazil will make this difficult.
The decision has created mass discontent among Brazilians who support Bolsonaro. Despite being away from politics for a while due to his house arrest, Bolsonaro still holds a strong base of support among the public. He condemned corruption and questioned the political establishment during and after his presidency, garnering him much popularity and support among right-leaning Brazilians. Working-class people, like police officers and street vendors, who have been tired of the corruption that Bolsonaro often spoke of, took to the streets and protested on the anniversary of Brazilian independence. Many of his supporters share Trump’s notion that this case constitutes a “witch hunt”. The Supreme Court’s result, therefore, will only increasingly agitate an already volatile political situation. In the past, Brazilian protesters have stormed government buildings in response to what they believed was an unjust election following Bolsonaro’s loss. This recent ruling against Bolsonaro raises concerns that his supporters could again take violent and destructive measures.
This decision also highlights the divides within Brazilian society. The left of the political spectrum supports the decision made by the court. Contrasting those who protested on Independence Day, Brazilians on the left openly celebrated in the streets. They were often from higher classes and held professions related to academia and medicine. Bolsonaro has often championed himself as someone who protects the working class by questioning and challenging corrupt politicians. His court ruling is being interpreted as a response to these efforts by the leftist Brazilian politicians, creating a divide within Brazilian socioeconomic classes.
The decision made by the Brazilian Supreme Court will force Brazil to reassess its international alliances and confront the political discord domestically. Lula will need to figure out how to deal with the fallout by creating a new economic plan for Brazil and finding a way to slow the growing divide between Brazilian citizens. Lula has previously faced threats of violence in this politically volatile situation. If he wishes to avoid further violence, he must act decisively to establish new foreign relationships and to appease aggrieved right-leaning Brazilians.